Ten days ago, the United States and Iran signed a preliminary agreement to end the war that the Israeli and American armies began against Iranian territory last February. However, the pact seems to have borne no fruit. Not even Iran has completely reactivated the Strait of Hormuz (as the US requested). Nor has Israel withdrawn its military troops from Lebanon (as Iran demanded). Not even Hezbollah has disarmed (as Israel requested).
All these interests, red lines and demands, which already seemed difficult to achieve in theory, now seem to have collided in practice, leaving the agreement – and especially peace – practically aside. What had been signed on paper was not fulfilled in reality, or at least not in its entirety, putting at risk not only the credibility of the powers involved, but also peace itself. Proof of this is, for example, the chaos in the Strait of Hormuz or Israel’s continuous attacks against Lebanon, where its troops still remain.
The Strait of Hormuz, the key point of the agreement
One of the main protagonists in this conflict has been the Strait of Hormuz—through which nearly 20% of the oil and a large part of the entire planet’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) transits—which has served Iran as a means of negotiation—and pressure—against the United States.
It is considered the main point of the negotiations and, precisely, it is where this clash of conflicts has been most evident. Proof of this is that during all these months it has been closed on countless occasions, which has almost completely paralyzed maritime traffic in the area.
Currently, the pass is open and, in fact, according to the CNN In the last week there has been more maritime traffic than in the last three months. Last Wednesday, for example, some seventy boats crossed this road, the highest number since the conflict began, according to Marine Traffic.
However, the area continues to be unsafe for boats that manage to cross it. This same Saturday, an oil tanker reported having suffered material damage after being hit by an “unidentified projectile”, although there have been no victims. The British maritime safety coordination and surveillance body for commercial traffic has recommended that ships transiting through there “do so with caution and report any suspicious activity.”
The presence of Israeli troops in Lebanon, the disarmament of Hezbollah and the attacks by Iran
Another of the red lines that was on the table was Lebanon, a territory in which Israeli troops continue to this day until Hezbollah disarms, something that, according to what Israel has defended, was something that had already been written in the framework agreement reached between both powers this Friday.
“The fundamental principle established in the agreement (with Lebanon) is that there will be no withdrawal of Israel in southern Lebanon, nor withdrawal, as long as the terrorist organization Hezbollah is not disarmed throughout Lebanon and the security of the residents of the north is guaranteed,” said Defense Minister Israel Katz.
However, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has said that the agreement, signed in Washington, is “null” and a “humiliation” and should be replaced by the memorandum between Iran and the United States. Furthermore, he warned that any attempt to link Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon with the group’s disarmament crossed “red lines.” That is to say, the group continues to maintain its position and rejects any type of disarmament, since they allege that handing over their weapons would leave them exposed to the expansionist desires of Israel, which today has resumed bombing southern Lebanon.
The attacks from the Iranian side have not stopped either, which launched an attack against Bahrain this Saturday and in the midst of a truce, which has led to the condemnation of Arab countries that have asked Tehran not to further fuel tensions. “These attacks occur at a time when regional efforts are moving towards consolidating the path of de-escalation and stability, which requires refraining from any action that could fuel tensions or undermine efforts aimed at strengthening regional security and peace,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said in a statement.
