No matter how much you have the most powerful army in the world, there are imponderables and immovable physical laws. A lot of ground to cover and few troopsin this case. Despite the immense US naval fleetonly has three minehunting ships deployed in the Persian Gulfa figure well below what would be necessary if a disaster were to break out, as published by the .
Meanwhile, military experts estimate that more than 200 drones operating permanently would be needed to monitor the more than 2,000 kilometers of Iranian coast. The data is not minor: the Strait of Hormuz It is one of the most difficult areas on the planet and, today, one of the most difficult to control militarily.
Germany’s refusal to participate in a possible European mission in the area reflects that reality. NATO’s current capabilities do not guarantee security in an environment which combines hostile geography, advanced Iranian weaponry and a clear defensive advantage for Tehran.
A terrain designed for ambush
The Strait of Hormuz is not only a key maritime passage for global oil. It is also a natural trap. In Its narrowest point measures just 55 kilometerswith shallow waters and full of small islands.
On the Iranian coast, geography plays in favor of the defender. Steep mountains and abrupt reliefs allow missile, artillery and drone systems to be hidden. This complicates any Western naval operation.
Iran has adapted its military strategy to this environment. You don’t need total superiority. It is enough for him to make the passage difficult, wear down the enemy and take advantage of every advantage of the terrain.
Missiles, drones and almost total coverage
The Iranian arsenal is another key factor. Anti-ship missiles such as Ghadirwith more than 300 kilometers of range, can cover practically the entire Persian Gulf. This forces US ships to operate remotely or take high risks.
But the problem doesn’t end there. Iran can also deploy:
- aerial drones of attack.
- underwater drones.
- FPV Drones for direct attacks.
The result is a multi-domain threat. Air, sea and subsoil. The US maintains air superiority, but the challenge is scale. Surveillance of the entire Iranian coast would involve more than 200 type drones Reaper in continuous flight, according to military estimates.
Sea mines: the greatest invisible danger
If there is a threat that particularly worries experts, they are naval mines. They are cheap, difficult to detect and extremely effective. They may be floating or attached to the seabed. And clearing a mined area is slow and dangerous.
Here appears a US key weakness: it has reduced its demining capacity in recent years and depends on European allies for this task, according to analyst Mark Cancian (CSIS).
The problem is that these allies are not always willing to participate. And not only by capacity, but by political context. Currently, Washington has only three minesweepers in the region, which greatly limits its room for maneuver.
A military operation with high human cost
Controlling the Strait of Hormuz is not just a naval issue. It would imply, almost certainly, .
To prevent attacks from the coast, The US would have to neutralize Iranian positions. That means amphibious landings, one of the most complex and risky maneuvers in military strategy.
Iran has about 600,000 soldierscompared to approximately 50,000 US troops in the region. The difference is notable.
Furthermore, Iranian troops have hardly suffered direct attrition in the current conflict. They maintain their operational capacity on the ground, which increases the risk for any offensive.
According to Cancian, the US could barely control some islands. Taking the coast would be “too dangerous”, apart from the fact that in Western democracies there is increasingly less scope for the bearable loss of life in conflicts. The question is also not what you have, but what you are willing to lose.
Europe doubts… and with reason
He Germany’s refusal to get involved in a mission in the Strait of Hormuz It is not coincidental. European frigates do not guarantee safety in such an environment.
Furthermore, the political context complicates cooperation. Expert Kevin Rowlands (RUSI) points to recent tensions within NATO as a key factor.
The question is obvious: are the allies willing to assume high risk in an operation with few guarantees? There Iran has an advantage.
