The first year of Donald Trump in the White House has rewritten the instruction manual of the cryptocurrencies. What began as an electoral idyll has led to a complex reality: a political legitimation unprecedented that, paradoxically, has coincided with a “bloodbath” in prices. He bitcoinwhich in October 2025 touched the sky with the $125,000is now trading almost 50% below those highs.
However, unlike previous crises marked by fraud or the collapse of platforms, this “criptoinvierno” It is the first of the professional era. Internet enthusiasts are no longer in charge, but capital flows from Wall Streetthe interest rates of the Federal Reserve and a regulation that seeks to turn the United States into the hub global of the sector.
This 180-degree turn has deep roots. Antonio Javier García MartínezCyber Intelligence analyst at Telefónica, explains that the change of Trump It is not just electoral, but personal. According to the expert, the Trump family suffered “debanking” for political reasons, which led them to discover bitcoin “the only asset that redefines the concept of property and makes it absolute”lacking central issuers that can block accounts.
This philosophy has permeated the administration, which has gone from the hostility of the era Biden (with close-ups of Kamala Harris) to consider these assets as innovation levers and national competitiveness.
The end of “persecution” and the beginning of laws
The political signaling has been clear. Executive Order 14178, signed in early 2025, directed federal agencies to foster innovation and draft a coherent framework for digital assets. Victor Saezdirector of Expansion and Strategy at Kraken, highlights that “the tone has changed from confrontation to dialogue”reducing stigma and allowing banks and payment companies to engage with the sector with greater confidence.
This change in climate also insists Javier Garcia de la Torredirector of Binance Spain, who points out that in the last year we have seen a “relevant change of tone in the public debate”which has turned towards leadership and competitiveness in digital assets, with “a more explicit discourse of support for responsible innovation.” As he explains, cryptoassets have gone from being perceived as a peripheral phenomenon to being placed “within the top-level technological and financial agenda.”
This climate has crystallized in legislative milestones such as the ley GENIUSwhich regulates the stablecoins (stable cryptocurrencies linked to the dollar), and the ley CLARITYwhich seeks to delimit the powers between regulators SEC y CFTC to eliminate legal uncertainty.
To Mike Brodowskivice president of commercial at Bitpanda, is legal certainty It is vital: “It is not a theoretical concept, but a factor that directly affects the allocation of capital and the location of talent.” The United States wants to prevent technological innovation and AI dominance from leaking to other regions, such as the European Union with its MiCA regulations, and consolidate itself as the world reference in the sector.
The North American president even put on the table the creation of a Bitcoin Strategic Reservea movement that, according to experts, positions the asset as a hedge similar to gold in a context of skyrocketing sovereign debt.
The paradox of maturity
If political support is so strong, why has bitcoin suffered this setback? The answer, according to those in the know, lies in its own maturity. By integrating into traditional markets through ETFs (traded funds)bitcoin is no longer an “isolated” asset to behave like a risk asset further. David Tercero-Lucasdoctor in economics and professor at Comillas-ICADE, points out that “Institutionalization does not guarantee immunity against falls”but rather links the price to large international capital flows.
Institutional managers operate under strict risk management rules; If volatility increases, they reduce their exposure in a coordinated manner
This has created a deleveraging spiral: When the price drops, automatic sales are activated to cover guarantees, accelerating the collapse. It is no longer an emotional panic of small investors, but a technical adjustment of diversified portfolios.
Javier Molinaan eToro analyst, agrees that it has been a year of transition: “Bitcoin increasingly behaves as a strategic macro asset within professional portfolios,” sensitive to global liquidity and the decisions of the Fed.
In this context of adjustment after the initial euphoria, the reading of Javier Cabrerafinancial analyst XTBwho points out that part of the correction responds to oversized expectations.
The market expected more aggressive movements from the US government, but the regulatory advance already represents important support
Cabrera also ‘celebrates’ the good climate of acceptance that there is towards the queen cryptocurrency. “The positive thing is that the adoption of bitcoin is becoming normal and more and more institutional investors are incorporating it as a strategic asset,” says the expert.
This change in climate also insists Javier Garcia de la Torredirector of Binance Spain, who points out that in the last year we have seen a “relevant change of tone in the public debate”which has turned towards leadership and competitiveness in digital assets, with a more explicit discourse of support for responsible innovation. As he explains, cryptoassets have gone from being perceived as a peripheral phenomenon to being placed “within the top-level technological and financial agenda.”
Garcia de la Torre underlines that the sectoral debate no longer revolves around whether the industry has a place in the financial system, but rather how to integrate it: “The conversation is no longer focused solely on risks or compliance, but on competitiveness, infrastructure and use cases”. In his opinion, regulatory evolution—both in the US and in Europe—has raised the bar for controls and transparency, reinforcing the maturity of the ecosystem.
Historic opportunity or burst bubble?
Despite the red color on the screens, the sector’s fundamentals seem stronger than ever. Carlos Molinillofinancial analyst at Learning Heores, points out that the technical indicators are at levels of record undervaluation.
He RSI (Relative Strength Index) has hit lows that, historically, have marked bottoms before parabolic rises. Furthermore, Molinillo highlights the concept of “dry gunpowder”: there are more than 314 billion dollars in stablecoins waiting on exchanges, ready to be invested as soon as volatility settles.
This vision is shared by Ruben Ayusomanaging partner at A&G Global Investors, who emphasizes that the stablecoin market is no longer pure speculation. “Its annual transaction volume is already greater than that of Visa and Mastercard combined. It is financial infrastructure operating on a global scale”, he states. Ayuso It also focuses on the tokenization of real assets (bonds or monetary funds), which already exceeds 20,000 million dollars and that giants like BlackRock consider the future of capital markets.
A future based on implementation
In 2026, the debate is no longer whether cryptocurrencies will survive, but how they will be deployed responsibly. According to a report by WisdomTreethe price discovery phase has given way to the portfolio allocation. “The objective is not to maximize exposure, but to optimize it within a global risk framework,” the manager explains. Bitcoin is already being analyzed as a digital scarcity assetcomparable to gold, but with the agility of blockchain technology.
Even the world of decentralized finance (DeFi) is crossing the bridge to the traditional system. A recent milestone has been the use of the platform Uniswap on the part of BlackRock to liquidate your tokenized treasury fund, validating the efficiency of these networks to move capital instantly and securely. This shows that, while the price suffers, the infrastructure It continues to be built in silence.
A new scenario
This first year of Trump leaves a clear lesson: bitcoin is no longer that “experiment” of a few computer scientists. It has become a piece of geopolitical board and financial. The arrival of clear regulation in the US and Europe (MiCA) offers greater consumer protectionreducing the risk of fraud like those of the past. However, the volatility is still there.
The average investor must understand that now bitcoin dances to the tune of Federal Reserve. If interest rates fall and liquidity flows, the asset tends to shine; If there are tariff tensions or risk aversion, bitcoin is one of the first to suffer. As the teacher concludes David Tercero-Lucasthe market is now “deeper, but also more sensitive to systemic shocks.” The experts’ recommendation is clear: training and prudence.
The it was Trump has opened the doors wide to cryptocurrencies, but that freedom brings with it a new responsibility for the investor: understanding that bitcoin no longer runs alone, but is an integral part of the global economic gear.
The crypto ecosystem has passed its “resistance test”. Despite the 45% drop, institutional conviction remains firm. Capital outflows from ETFs have been minimal (barely 5%), suggesting that professional money is here to stay with a vision of long term.
The United States has laid the foundation; Now it remains to be seen if geopolitics, this regulatory framework and institutional appetite are enough for bitcoin to regain its crown and surpass, in the next cycle, the historical highs that political euphoria promised at the time.
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