Rising oil and dollar prices increase uncertainty before Copom meeting
The week begins with anticipation for interest rate decisions in Brazil and the United States amid the uncertainties caused by the war in the Middle East.
The conflict changed parameters that had been considered by the financial market.
At the previous meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee signaled the start of cuts in the Selic rate in March. The expectation is that the board will not reverse the scenario projected by the market.
The war raised the price of oil and put pressure on the dollar. There was also an increase in fuel prices.
Petrobras only readjusted diesel, which has less weight in the inflation index. In retail, however, the increases also affected gasoline.
The rise in diesel prices could impact the cost of freight and the transport of goods. The fuel is also used in agricultural machinery and other sectors of the economy.
At the same time, doubts persist about the fiscal scenario.
Economic data from the beginning of the year came in above forecasts. After falls in December, industry, commerce and services recorded growth in January.
Changes in the scenario increase uncertainty about the Copom decision, scheduled for Wednesday. If there is a cut in the basic rate, the predominant expectation is a reduction of 0.25 percentage points.
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*With information from Denise Campos de Toledo
