The attack on the Diego Garcia base reveals that it now has a range of more than 4,000 km, overturning all previous intelligence estimates. According to analysts, this development puts Europe in and forces them to completely change their war strategy.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Muhanad Seloom, an expert analyst and lecturer at the Doha Institute of Graduate Studies, explained why this particular attack is causing alarm in Western capitals:
1. The “collapse” of previous estimates of range
Until today, Western intelligence agencies estimated that the maximum range of Iranian ballistic missiles was limited to 2,000 kilometers. The Diego Garcia strike proves in practice that Tehran now has an operational capability exceeding 4,000 kilometers.
2. London within reach
The geographical extension of this new capability is shocking for European security. As Seloom explained, if these missiles are fired westward, instead of the Indian Ocean, they have the ability to hit London.
“This is a game-changer, not only for the US’s justification of the war, but also for the hitherto hesitant attitude of Great Britain and the European Union regarding their involvement in the conflict,” he noted.
3. The shadow of ICBMs
The analyst went a step further, estimating that Iran may already have developed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), capable of reaching even the United States. This technology, according to Seloom, has been tested and perfected through Iran’s space program, which acts as a “cloak” for the development of advanced long-range weapons systems.
What is Diego Garcia and why is it the US’s “unsinkable aircraft carrier”?
The military base in Diego Garcia, a coral atoll in the Chagos archipelago of the Indian Ocean, is considered one of the most critical and “invisible” strongholds of the American and British armed forces, worldwide.
- Strategic location: Located at a crossroads between Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, allowing the US to project power throughout the Eastern Hemisphere.
- Stealth Bomber Base: It is one of the few locations in the world that can host and support the B-52, B-1 strategic bombers and the “stealth” B-2 Spirit.
- Logistics and supply: It serves as a huge warehouse of ammunition, fuel and equipment for the US rapid reaction forces, and has a port capable of receiving aircraft carriers and nuclear powered submarines.
- Operational history: The base played a leading role in operations in the Persian Gulf (1991), Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003).
Why the strike is shocking: Until now, Diego Garcia has been considered “untouchable”, due to its vast distance from any enemy front. Iran’s ability to strike it means that no American infrastructure in the wider region is now out of danger.
