carried out the tax reform that 9 out of 10 economists thought was necessary to unlock Brazilian capitalism. He levied taxes on the rich like no left-wing government had ever levied. He managed to deliver low unemployment, average growth higher than that of recent years and was the only Brazilian politician, as far as is known so far, who refused to talk to , owner of .
Fernando Haddad was, therefore, a good minister.
Even so, a large part of the left calls him neoliberal, and the market regrets that Haddad did not make a tougher fiscal adjustment.
The accusation of neoliberalism arose when Haddad proposed his fiscal framework, which limited the growth of public spending to 70% of the increase in government revenue. With the framework, Haddad began to have difficulties in maintaining two expensive policies: increases in the minimum wage proportional to GDP growth (which accelerates the growth of social security expenses indexed to the minimum) and the indexation of health and education expenses at 100% of the increase in revenue. These expenses that grow, by law, as much as or more than revenue make it difficult to keep all expenses within 70%.
These problems still need to be resolved. In 2024, Haddad even posted a text by the economist who defended changes in the indexation of social spending. Recently, he has advocated for a basic income.
In any case, the question remains for the minister’s left-wing critics: were the good results that Haddad delivered the result of his neoliberalism? Was the 2023 tax reform, which, according to all projections, should favor Brazilian industry and increase our potential GDP, “austericidal”? Was it neoliberalism that inspired Haddad, something that no one had done, not even the other PT governments?
As for Haddad’s critics in the market, I suggest they pay attention to Haddad’s recent behavior. Has he been willing to openly defend the adjustment you want? Will he publicly commit to freezing the real increase in the minimum wage, as he did during the Bolsonaro government? If for Flávio Bolsonaro, who depends less on low-income voters, your program sounds like political suicide, why would a left-wing government implement it?
Most likely, the Brazilian fiscal problem will be resolved without magic, as the tax reform was negotiated: with patience, agreements, transition rules, compensation for those who lose out.
Fernando Haddad started the government as the favorite to be the PT candidate in 2026. This intensified the opposition against him, both on the right and among other PT members who considered themselves presidential candidates.
When the PT saw the entire elite get excited about , Haddad’s good traffic with the market lost value for the PT: there was no point in pleasing those who were already closed with the other side.
Jair outsmarted everyone and now both Haddad and Tarcísio, who could be running for President, will fight for the government of . It could be good for São Paulo residents.
Whatever his future, Minister Haddad did a lot of good things during three very difficult years. It deserves applause.
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