Slowly heading towards the 2027 elections, the “Queen of Europe”, as the Western press has called her, has to face her new “General”, Roberto Vanacci. How she handles this new threat will likely determine whether she remains on the throne.
International Pressures and Economic Impasses
He’s already in enough trouble. Her once close relationship with Trump has turned toxic for her voters. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s recent statement that Italy has allowed the US to use its bases for the war in Iran, which Italy has denied, has put it in an uncomfortable position. The Italian economy is not flying. The Italian GDP is one of the lowest in Europe, while the debt for 2026 is predicted to rise to 138.5%, surpassing that of Greece. Although with 194 billion euros it is the largest recipient of the European Union’s Recovery and Resilience program, it has spent only 57% of what has been allocated to it.
Demographically, however, she has managed to maintain the percentage of her party, “Brothers of Italy”, at high levels, even 2-3 points more than when she was elected. “Meloni has done very well, for someone who has been prime minister for 4 years now. It has shown great resilience,” Daniele Albertacci, Professor of Political Science at the School of Social Sciences at the University of Surrey, in the United Kingdom, comments to Vima.
“However, Italian politics has been coalition politics since Silvio Berlusconi, in the mid-90s, invented the idea of uniting all the rightists, and forced the left to try to think in the same terms in each successive election. So since this is coalition politics, even if you lose 3-6% of the vote, that alone can be enough to lose you the election. And this is where Roberto Vanacci enters the scene,” explains Mr. Albertacci.
The Rise of Roberto Vanacci and the “National Future”
But who is the “General” Roberto Vanacci who has upset the Italian political scene in recent months?
Roberto Vanacci, 58, is a former Italian army officer and current MEP, who became widely known in 2023 thanks to his book “The World Upside Down”, which contains anti-immigrant, anti-gay and anti-feminist views.
Matteo Salvini thought it was a good idea to take advantage of his fame, made Vanacci deputy leader in his party, “Lega”, and “put him down” in the 2024 European elections, where he triumphed. Vanatsi, however, left him in February 2026 and founded his own party, “National Future” (Futuro Nazionale).
“National Future” has all the ingredients of a far-right party, calling for the country’s immigrant population to be reduced from 12% today to 4%, with anti-abortion, anti-gay and anti-woke culture positions. He is anti-European and excludes the return of Italy’s national sovereignty. While condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he admires Putin, favors energy trade with Moscow, and opposes military and economic aid to Ukraine. In the war with Iran, he proposed that the European Union send aid to the Iranian regime – which, according to him, has accepted American and Israeli aggression – as it did with Ukraine, accusing it of a hypocritical attitude.
“Vanacci is essentially positioned to the right of both the “Brothers of Italy” and the “Lega”. He tells the voters that neither Meloni, nor Salvini, are willing to implement what they promised them. I would really describe him as a far-right leader because he is very openly trying to win votes from the neo-fascists,” commented Mr. Albertacci.
The Demographic Rift and the Threat of the Far Right
According to recent opinion polls, the newly founded Vanatsi party already gets 5.3%, roughly the same percentage as Salvini’s League, causing an “earthquake” in the country’s political scene. “The problem is that when two contending coalitions are fairly balanced – as is the case in Italy with the right and left coalitions – even losing 4-5% of the vote to someone outside your coalition can decide the outcome of the election,” explains Mr Albertacci.
The Strategic Dilemma: Alliance or Isolation?
Meloni is therefore faced with a dilemma: to include “National Future” in her Coalition or to isolate it?
“The easiest thing for her would be to integrate Vanachi and make him a member of the coalition, which he also wants. But of course, politics is not just about these calculations. It’s about ideology, identity, politics. Meloni has worked very hard to show Italians that, especially at the international level, she is a modern, responsible and reliable leader. Working with someone like Vanachi causes her a lot of problems.
If he cooperates with him, the question arises: will he be like Salvini, who “barks” on various issues, but on the important ones, such as the European Union and Ukraine, he always votes with the “Brothers of Italy” or will Mr. Vanacci be more “annoying”? I suspect the second, because otherwise it will have no reason to exist politically”, analyzes Mr. Albertacci.
If she does not cooperate with him, however, she will lose crucial votes, since Vanatsi has so far been “stealing” voters from her alliance.
The parliamentary elections of 2027 will be more difficult for Meloni for one more reason. Unlike the previous ones, the main opposition parties, i.e. the “Democratic Party” and “The Five Stars”, despite their significant differences, have come together and can attract other small satellite parties. “That’s why everyone expects this election to be very, very lopsided,” Mr. Albertacci said.
The proposal for the new electoral law
Meloni, as an experienced politician, proposes to change the electoral law so that there is a “majority bonus”. With the new system, the party or coalition – as long as it has already agreed who will be the candidate for prime minister – that wins more than 40% of the vote will automatically receive the necessary number of seats to govern safely.
It is not certain, however, whether she will be able to pass this proposal, and even if she does, whether she will ultimately win. At this stage, how she will handle Roberto Vanacci is probably the most critical question for the next day in her political career. Difficult dilemmas for the Italian Prime Minister.
