Allies of () assess that the difference between the senator and the president () in a possible second round, measured in, is surmountable with the start of the campaign. They also hope that the effects of the Senate (PT-BA), triggered on Thursday (18), will improve Bolsonaro’s performance in the next surveys.
People close to Lula, on the other hand, minimize the possible impacts of the operation against Wagner on the president. A government minister claims that the investigation against the government leader in the Senate is not linked to Lula and will not have an effect comparable to the revelations of an audio conversation between Flávio and .
This shows that Lula continues to have an advantage and scores 41% in the first round, compared to 31% for Flávio. The research was carried out between Wednesday (17) and Thursday (18) and only partially captures the impacts of the operation against Wagner.
The result represents a maintenance of the scenario compared to the previous round, made after Vorcaro to support the film Dark Horse, about (PL). The previous survey scored 40% for Lula and 31% for Flávio.
In the simulation of a second round between the two candidates, both repeated the score seen a month ago, of 47% for the PT member and 43% for the Bolsonarist, which generates a difference of four percentage points. Blanks and nulls total 8%, and 1% don’t know.
The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.
For Sóstenes Cavalcante (PL-SP), leader of the PL in the Chamber, a difference of four points for “those who didn’t even start the campaign and were heavily attacked is very good”. He highlighted that in 2022 research indicated that there would be a greater difference between the votes of Lula and Jair Bolsonaro (PL) compared to the final result at the polls.
Sóstenes says that maintaining Flávio’s percentage shows that the repercussion of the “Dark Horse” case has already reached its limit. He assesses that the result “will improve” when the full impact of the operation against Wagner is measured.
The leader of the opposition in the Chamber, deputy Cabo Gilberto Silva (PL-PB), also highlighted the fact that the research did not capture the full impact of the case involving the PT member.
Another PL politician says that a repeat of Flávio’s result could impact the Bolsonarist strategy. Initially, the operation against Wagner, as it would not be prudent to bet this year’s election on the Master case given the volatility of the scandal.
Now, he assesses that the wear and tear on Flávio has reached the limit and that is why it would be possible to invest more in criticizing the PT due to Wagner’s connection with Vorcaro.
The leader of the PT in the Chamber, Pedro Uczai (PT-SC), says that the survey “consolidates President Lula’s approval” and shows an upward trend as the results of the government’s actions are felt.
He considers that Flávio’s political trajectory in Rio de Janeiro, in addition to his relationship with Vorcaro, leads society to differentiate candidates and generates a positive result for Lula.
Federal deputy Jilmar Tatto (SP), who coordinates the PT’s electoral working group, also assesses that it shows that President Lula is “consolidating himself at the forefront” of the dispute.
He recognizes, however, that the survey indicates that the wear on Flávio Bolsonaro has slowed down. “But, when the election campaign starts, I think he will wear himself out even more [com o caso envolvendo o ex-banqueiro]”, he stated.
“We are not in a comfort zone, but in a ‘guarded tranquility’ so that we can move forward and win the election,” he said.
For Tatto, the research also consolidates the scenario of dispute between Lula and Flávio in the second round. “The third way really has no alternative, it doesn’t exist.”
Heard by Sheet subject to reservation, a president of a centrist party disagrees. He says that the results of the survey indicate that Flávio’s actions show that he has already lost the election and has become the best opponent to guarantee Lula a victory.
He defends that the center, the parties on the right and even the PL itself, led by Valdemar Costa Neto, come together to choose another candidate and replace Flávio with someone who does not have the surname Bolsonaro.
After Lula with 41% and Flávio with 31% in the first round, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) with 3%, Renan Santos (Missão) with 3%, Romeu Zema (Novo) with 2%, Aécio Neves (PSDB) with 2%, Samara Martins (UP) with 2%, Augusto Cury (Avante) with 2%, Joaquim Barbosa (DC) with 1%, Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza) with 1% and Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) with 1%.
